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BNP Paribas Joins May Hiking Club

BOE

Following the wage and inflation data the last couple of days, BNP Paribas analysts have upped their forecast for the BoE's terminal base rate to 4.50% with one more 25bp hike in May, vs a long-standing call for a 4.25% peak.

  • Factors cited include a "combination of better-than-expected growth, worse-than-expected inflation, the relatively limited fallout from banking issues (so far), and the marginally more hawkish tone from MPC speakers".
  • They see rates on hold through 2023 with 100bp of cuts in 2024. They've tweaked their Gilt yield forecasts, w 10Y ending 2023 at 3.35% (up 10bp vs their previous view) and 2024 at 2.8% (-5bp).
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