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BNP Paribas Says S. Africa 2022 CPI May Average 6.5%; Saw 6%

SOUTH AFRICA
  • The risk of more problematic inflation expectations in South Africa this year has become more acute, in spite of base effects in the second half of the year, and there is scope for price growth to average 6.5% in 2022, up from a prior estimate of 6%, BNP Paribas senior economist Jeffrey Schultz says
  • The ongoing war in Ukraine will continue to have severe, longer-lasting implications for global supply chains, commodity prices and global inflation* Thursday’s South African interest-rate decision and statement could show a central bank “that is becoming increasingly uncomfortable with what looks to be a larger negative real rate outlook”
  • “While we don’t yet see the SARB raising rates by 50bps this meeting, front-loading more aggressive rate hikes in coming meetings could well become the strategy as the SARB looks to nip inflation expectations in the bud and build up buffers against an increasingly uncertain global backdrop where global recessionary and stagflationary concerns could well come back to the fore later this year” - bbg
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
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MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
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