BNP using the 2003 SAARS......>

GLOBAL MARKET/OPINION: BNP using the 2003 SAARS virus outbreak as a guide for

estimating how markets may react to the current Wuhan coronavirus outbreak. 

* Citing a 2005 study on SAARS "found the impact to be fairly small for EMs as a

whole, but meaningful for some countries in East Asia. Thailand, Malaysia,

Singapore and Taiwan were directly impacted by the virus outbreak and felt

temporary shocks...Considering the experience with SARS, the peak of the

coronavirus outbreak could occur in March, and anomalies should be expected in

activity and trade data across EM Asia in H1 2020." 

* NOW AND THEN: BNP warns a larger economic fallout is possible as the size of

the Chinese economy has doubled, Chinese outbound travel has increased six-fold,

and the weight of China's external demand in total global exports

has gone up from below 4% to over 11% today." 

* Though "EM growth is softer than it was in 2003" as they emerge from a

"deceleration", BNP "e still expect a recovery in EM activity to happen this

year, but believe the coronavirus outbreak may delay the recovery."