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BNP: Weak PMIs Won't Deter "Aggressive" BoE/ECB Tightening

EUROPE

BNP Paribas doesn't think today's weak PMIs are a prelude to the BoE and ECB paring back their "aggressive" tightening plans:

  • "the direction of travel for growth indicated by today’s data should not surprise the ECB and BoE. Admittedly, we think that realised GDP growth will be even weaker than indicated by the PMI figures which, at face value, still point to growth whereas we expect quasi-stagnation in the eurozone in the coming quarters."
  • "However, to the extent that we [do] not expect a significant slowdown in the labour market – as supported by the employment indices in today’s figures which remained relatively resilient – and inflationary pressures are still elevated, we expect central banks to continue in their ‘dash for neutral’ and maintain an aggressive tightening path in the coming months."
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