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BoA Revised Higher Interest Rate Profiles in 1H 2022 Across CEE Region

CEE
  • In Czechia, BoA now sees the rate peak at 5% by May 2022. Governor Rusnok is clear that rates should be well over 4%, but ruling out more than 5%. In any case, hikes should be completed in 1H BoA thinks.
  • In Poland, BoA above-consensus YE2022 rate forecast of 3.50% now looks well within reach.. Governor Glapinski is no longer hesitating to explicitly guide for 50bp steps, and rates up to 4% if GDP allows.
  • In Hungary, BoA see steady 30bp increases in the base rate to 4.50% by the summer. Governor Matolscy sees the scope for the base rate to catch up with the 1-week deposit rate (currently at 4%) in 1H 2022. But monetary policy effectiveness is still in question, burdening the HUF. The NBH may need to enhance policy effectiveness with other tools, e.g. FX swaps.
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