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BOC PREVIEW - September 2020: Remains On Target

BOC REMAINS ON 0.25% TARGET

For all intents and purposes, the Bank of Canada is expected to keep its target rate on hold at 0.25% Wednesday, QE program and forward guidance unchanged as well.

  • Base Case: Steady with approximately 85% of analysts seeing no change in rate into 2023. Despite a slight drop-off in use, commitment to C$5B/wk bond purchase program is expected "until the recovery is well underway." Scotiabank posits Governor Macklem could "emphasize or jawbone a more concerted effort toward convincing markets that 2% is an average target accompanied by overshooting periods and not a ceiling."
  • Dovish: Cutting the target rate to negative levels remains a non-starter while other tools remain: yield curve control, lending to financial institutions under condition "they lend it to people and businesses, the BOC said.
  • Hawkish: While several analysts appear cautiously upbeat after strong GDP gains this summer, raising rates remains a non-option for the next couple years.

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