MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - JPY Nears 1,000 Pip Correction

MNI (LONDON) - Price Signal Summary – USD/JPY Nears 1,000 Pip Correction

• The e-mini S&P ebbed to a new pullback low early Thursday, building on the weak Wednesday close and souring the S/T outlook. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA as well as key support at 5501.50. Eurostoxx 50 futures have started Thursday trade poorly, with the contract breaking through several supports in early earnings-driven weakness. 4,848/46 have now both broken, giving way to a new pullback low at 4822.00.
• USDJPY again trades weaker early Thursday, as the Asia-Pac session sees several key supports give way. The print below the 153.66 mark, the 38.2% retracement for the Dec - Jul upleg, is the most notable, as the 200-dma trades in very close proximity at 151.54. GBPUSD remains in a bull-mode condition despite the dip back below 1.30. Gains posted mid-last week again confirm a resumption of the current bull phase and the extension higher highlights a stronger medium-term bullish condition. The downleg in AUDUSD extended Thursday as the 200-dma support cracked at yesterday’s close. The move has accelerated to put the pair at new multi-month lows and test the 0.6530 key retracement level for the latest multi-month rally.
• Gold trades heavy early Thursday, pushing spot below the 20-day EMA support to new pullback lows. Nonetheless, the broader gains last week reinforce current conditions, and keep the M/T trend pointed higher. Weakness through Tuesday and the broad commodity sell-off resulted in a new low for WTI futures at $76.40, breaking the Monday low in the process. Vol band based support undercuts from here at 76.52.
• Bund futures saw support across Tuesday trade, rallying well off the 50-day EMA to secure a strong close. That filtered through to Wednesday morning, and similarly on Thursday morning. Resistance at 132.66 - the Jul 17 high - is in focus. Gilt futures traded modestly softer into the Wednesday close, failing to stage a rally toward the better levels of last week and keeping price below former resistance at 98.24, the Jun 28 high. This may suggest further slippage toward 97.63 on any renewed weakness. 

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Soft Start

• RES 4: 1.1055 1.236 projection of the Apr 16 - Jun 4 - 26 price swing   
• RES 3: 1.0981 High Mar 3 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 1.0964 High Mar 13
• RES 1: 1.0948 High Jul 17
• PRICE: 1.0831 @ 08:21 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 1.0828 Low Jul 25
• SUP 2: 1.0736 Low Jul 3
• SUP 3: 1.0666 Low Jun 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.0650 Low May 1

EUR/USD trades again softer early Thursday, printing a new pullback low and breaking below the 20-day EMA in the process. This cements the fade of the previously dominant bull cycle in EURUSD, and keeps short-term resistance at 1.0964, the Mar 13 high, intact for now. The key upside level remains 1.0981, the Mar 8 high. On the downside, a break below the 1.08 handle opens 1.0736 for direction. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Condition Fades as Spot Finds No Reprieve

• RES 4: 1.3193 2.236 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing     
• RES 3: 1.3142 High Jul 14 ‘23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3094 Bull channel top drawn from the Oct 4 ‘23 low
• RES 1: 1.3044 High Jul 17
• PRICE: 1.2881 @ 08:25 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 1.2874 Low Jul 25  
• SUP 2: 1.2847/1.2782 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2613 Low Jun 27
• SUP 4: 1.2584 Low May 15   

GBPUSD remains in a bull-mode condition despite the dip back below 1.30. Gains posted mid-last week again confirm a resumption of the current bull phase and the extension higher highlights a stronger medium-term bullish condition. Price had cleared the 1.3000 handle, signalling scope for an extension towards 1.3094, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 4 low of last year. Firm short-term support is seen below at 1.2847/1.2782, the 20- and 50-day EMA respectively. The bullish picture worsens below this mark.      

EURGBP TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows                            

• RES 4: 0.8586 76.4% retracement of the Apr 23 - Jun 14 bear leg  
• RES 3: 0.8568 High May 20
• RES 2: 0.8462/99 50-day EMA / High Jul 1 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 0.8428 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 0.8409 @ 08:29 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 0.8383 Low Jul 17 
• SUP 2: 0.8345 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8366 2.236 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.8322 2.618 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing

EURGBP traded lower again Wednesday. A bear cycle remains intact and the cross is trading closer to its recent lows. Recent weakness resulted in a print below key support at 0.8397, the Jun 14 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the medium-term downtrend and pave the way for an extension towards 0.8366, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.8428, the 20-day EMA.    

USDJPY TECHS: Bear Cycle Accelerates 

• RES 4: 162.21 1.764 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing    
• RES 3: 161.95 High Jul 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 159.16/160.26 20-day EMA / Low Jul 8 
• RES 1: 157.86 High Jul 19
• PRICE: 152.37 @ 08:31 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 152.20 Low Jul 25
• SUP 2: 151.54 200-dma
• SUP 3: 151.10 50% retracement Deb - Jul Upleg
• SUP 4: 150.81 Low Apr 5, 2024

USDJPY again trades weaker early Thursday, as the Asia-Pac session sees several key supports give way. The print below the 153.66 mark, the 38.2% retracement for the Dec - Jul upleg, is the most notable, as the 200-dma trades in very close proximity at 151.54. While this week’s move confirms a technically oversold signal from the 14-day RSI, momentum in the pair suggests there may not be a consolidative phase in the very near-term. 

EURJPY TECHS: Sell-Off Extends, Shrugs Off Oversold Condition

• RES 4: 176.03 1.618 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 173.92 61.8% retracement of the Jul 11 - 12 sell-off  
• RES 1: 172.92 High Jul 16 
• PRICE: 165.06 @ 08:37 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 164.91 Low Jul 25
• SUP 2: 164.33 50% retracement for Dec - Jul upleg
• SUP 4: 164.02 Low May 3
• SUP 4: 162.28 Low Apr 12

The sharp sell-off in EURJPY persists, with further supports cracking on the way lower in the cross. The next leg of this strong reversal phase will depend on momentum for another leg lower, initially targeting 164.50 before 164.33 - the 50% retracement for the upleg posted off the December 2023 low. Key resistance is well off spot now, with the 50-dma the next relevant upside level at 170.76.

AUDUSD TECHS: 200-dma Cracks, Momentum Picks Up

• RES 4: 0.6895 High Jul 13 / 14 2023    
• RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and a key resistance                
• RES 2: 0.6839 High Jan 02
• RES 1: 0.6799 High Jul 11 
• PRICE: 0.6535 @ 08:45 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 0.6530 61.8% retracement for Apr - Jul Upleg
• SUP 2: 0.6526 Low Jul 25
• SUP 3: 0.6466 76.4% retracement for Apr - Jul Upleg
• SUP 4: 0.6465 Low May 1

The downleg in AUDUSD extended Thursday as the 200-dma support cracked at yesterday’s close. The move has accelerated to put the pair at new multi-month lows and test the 0.6530 key retracement level for the latest multi-month rally. This week’s bearish developments expose prices to a further correction toward 0.6465, a key support which coincides with another Fib level at 0.6466.  

USDCAD TECHS: Rally Persists, Flashes Overbought

• RES 4: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance    
• RES 3: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
• RES 2: 1.3845 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.3838 High Jul 25
• PRICE: 1.3822 @ 08:58 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 1.3590/89 Low May 16 and a key support / Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4 

The impulsive rally in USD/CAD persists, with the pair showing above 1.3792 resistance this week. Further gains target the 1.0% 10-dma envelope at 1.3845 initially ahead of the more important level of 1.3846 - the Apr 16 high and bull trigger. The pair has flashed as technically overbought on an intraday basis on the 14-day RSI, which may be monitored on a strong close today for any signs of a consolidative phase. A return lower looks to 1.3590 as first major support. 

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Strong Tuesday Close, Exposes Resistance

• RES 4: 133.42 1.764 projection of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 1 price swing            
• RES 3: 133.21 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 132.80 High Jun 25
• RES 1: 132.66 High Jul 17                     
• PRICE: 132.18 @ 07:26 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 131.76 50-day EMA           
• SUP 2: 130.95/23 Low Jul 10 / 3 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 129.52 Low Jun 10
• SUP 4: 129.37 Low May 31 and the bear trigger 

Bund futures saw support across Tuesday trade, rallying well off the 50-day EMA to secure a strong close. That filtered through to Wednesday morning, and similarly on Thursday morning. Resistance at 132.66 - the Jul 17 high - is in focus. Last week, the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 14 - Jul 3 bear leg, was pierced, opening 133.21, the Jun 14 high. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on key support at 130.23, the Jul 3 low. First support is 131.76, the 50-day EMA.   

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Remains Intact                                          

• RES 4: 117.831 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 117.380 2.00 projection of the May 31 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing     
• RES 2: 117.160 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger    
• RES 1: 116.930 High Jul 24               
• PRICE: 116.840 @ 07:30 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 116.440 20-day EMA     
• SUP 2: 115.980 Low Jul 10 / 11   
• SUP 3: 115.530 Low Jul and the key short-term support
• SUP 4: 115.180 Low Jun 10 

Bobl futures traded well Wednesday, rallying to touch a new monthly high at 116.930. This retains the bull cycle over the medium-term after price pierced 116.775, the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 14 - Jul 5 bear leg. The clear break here exposes 117.160, the Jun 14 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, a reversal would refocus attention on 115.530, the Jul 5 low and a key support. Initial support to watch lies at 116.440, the 20-day EMA - already being tested early Tuesday.             

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Bullish Theme Firms

• RES 4: 106.823 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 106.009 2.382 projection of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing   
• RES 2: 105.975 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger  
• RES 1: 105.905 High Jul 25  
• PRICE: 105.770 @ 07:29 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 105.668 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 105.495/390 Low Jul 11 / 5 
• SUP 3: 105.314 76.4% retracement of the May 24 Jun 14 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 105.175 Low Jun 7  

Schatz futures trade a new high Thursday morning, topping the next upside level at the 61.8% retracement for the Jun 14 - Jul 5 bear leg at 105.837. This narrows the gap with the key bull trigger at the Jun 14 high of 105.975. On the downside, a reversal would refocus attention on key short-term support at 105.390, the Jul 5 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bearish theme.                      

GILT TECHS: (U4) Reverses Recent Gains                                        

• RES 4: 100.00 Psychological round number  
• RES 3: 99.62 1.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 99.23 High Jun 21 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 98.93 High Jul 16 
• PRICE: 97.68 @ Close Jul 24 
• SUP 1: 97.63/96.57 Low Jul 11 / 1 and a key support      
• SUP 2: 96.25 76.4% retracement of the May 29 - Jun 21 bull run      
• SUP 3: 96.12 Low Jun 10 
• SUP 4: 95.33 Low May 29 and a key support   

Gilt futures traded modestly softer into the Wednesday close, failing to stage a rally toward the better levels of last week and keeping price below former resistance at 98.24, the Jun 28 high. This may suggest further slippage toward 97.63 on any renewed weakness. A further reversal would refocus attention on 96.57, the Jul 1 low and a key short-term support. Any bounce this week would need to top key short-term resistance at 99.23, the Jun 21 high. 

BTP TECHS: (U4) Fades Off Highs, But Still Bullish

• RES 4: 120.20 2.00 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 3: 119.55 1.764 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing 
• RES 2: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 118.73 High May 16 and a key resistance 
• PRICE: 117.68 @ 07:41 Jul 25
• SUP 1: 117.40 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 116.07 Low Jul 8 
• SUP 3: 114.72 Low Jul 2 
• SUP 4: 114.35 Low Jun 11 and key support 

BTP futures printed another lower low early Thursday, opening further the gap with recent highs. The medium-term trend, however, remains positive after the impulsive rally resulted in a print above 118.58, the May 16 high. A continuation of the bull cycle would open the 119.00 handle next ahead of 119.55, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 117.40, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective and this would allow an overbought condition to unwind.                         

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Trades Through Bear Trigger    

• RES 4: 5200.00 Round number resistance  
• RES 3: 5151.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger      
• RES 2: 5132.00 High Jun 6
• RES 1: 4994.76/5087.00 50-day EMA / High Jul 12   
• PRICE: 4843.00 @ 07:44 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 4822.00 Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4800.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 4762.00 Low Apr 19 (Cont)
• SUP 4: 4733.17 200-dma

Eurostoxx 50 futures have started Thursday trade poorly, with the contract breaking through several supports in early earnings-driven weakness. 4,848/46 have now both broken, giving way to a new pullback low at 4822.00. These levels mark key reversal points, opening round number support of 4800.00 initially, ahead of 4762.00 and the 200-dma. For bulls, a move higher and a break of 5087.00, the Jul 12 high, would argue for a return to the bullish theme.          

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U4) Soft Close Leads to Further Losses

• RES 4: 5786.66 3.50 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing 
• RES 3: 5764.00 3.50 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 2: 5741 34 3.382 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: 5721.25 High Jul 16      
• PRICE: 5481.00 @ 07:49 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 5461.50 Low Jul 25
• SUP 2: 5433.55 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 5398.75 Low Jun 11 
• SUP 4: 5267.75 Low May 31 and key support

Prices ebbed to a new pullback low early Thursday, building on the weak Wednesday close and souring the S/T outlook. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA as well as key support at 5501.50. This opens for further losses toward 5433.55, the 3.0% 10-dma envelope - a level pierced only three times since the beginning of 2023 and a decent reversal indicator. Sights to the upside are on 5741.34, a Fibonacci projection. 

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U4) 50-Day EMA, Fib Support Cracks

• RES 4: $91.99 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing 
• RES 3: $90.23 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $89.32 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $87.95 - High Jul 5    
• PRICE: $81.14 @ 08:07 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: $80.51 - Low Jul 23
• SUP 2: $79.32 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 4 - Jul 5 bull leg  
• SUP 3: $76.66 - Low Jun 4 and a key support
• SUP 4: $75.31 - Low Feb 5 

The trend condition in Brent futures remains bullish, however, a corrective cycle is in play and the contract has pierced both the the 50-day EMA and the 50% retracement for the Jun 4 - Jul 5 bull leg to print a pullback low at $81.51. Should prices stabilise ahead, a continuation higher would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at $87.95, the Jul 5 high. $79.32 is next key support. 

WTI TECHS: (U4) Outlook Deteriorates Further

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $87.43 - 1.00 proj of the Dec 13 ‘23 - Apr 12 - Jun 4 swing 
• RES 2: $84.36 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $83.58 - High Jul 5   
• PRICE: $77.35 @ 08:08 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: $76.92 - 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 2: $76.40 - Low Jul 22
• SUP 3: $72.23 - Low Jun 4 and a key support 
• SUP 4: $70.73 - Low Feb 5 

Weakness through Tuesday and the broad commodity sell-off resulted in a new low for WTI futures at $76.40, breaking the Monday low in the process. Vol band based support undercuts from here at 76.52, ahead of key support at the Jun 4 low of 72.23. Initial key resistance to watch is $83.58, the Jul 5 high, and a break and close above this level is needed ahead of any test on the 84.36 bull trigger.  

GOLD TECHS: Further Off Highs

• RES 4: $2575.4 - 3.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing   
• RES 3: $2528.4 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2500.0 - Round number resistance 
• RES 1: $2483.8 - High Jul 17                 
• PRICE: $2367.5 @ 08:09 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: $2365.9 - Low Jul 25
• SUP 2: $2320.1/2286.9 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 7
• SUP 3: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support 
• SUP 4: $2228.6 - Low Apr 1

Prices are heavy early Thursday, pushing spot below the 20-day EMA support to new pullback lows. Nonetheless, the broader gains last week reinforce current conditions, and keep the M/T trend pointed higher. The yellow metal has breached key resistance and the bull trigger at $2450.1, the May 20 high. This confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and opens the $2500.00 handle next. Moving average studies are in a clear bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend. Support shifts to $2320.1, the 50-day EMA.     

SILVER TECHS: Short-Term Structure Deteriorates

• RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing        
• RES 3: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
• RES 2: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: $32.518 - High May 20 and bull trigger               
• PRICE: $27.895 @ 08:15 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: $27.741 Low Jul 25
• SUP 2: $27.226 50% retracement for Feb - May Upleg
• SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support  
• SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27

Silver slipped through further supports in a bearish overnight session, taking out the weekly lows and extending the negative response to the break of the 50-day EMA. $28.573, the Jun 26 low, has given way, opening $26.018 as the next key level. Any recovery and return higher would resume the bull cycle after the recent break of $30.853, the Jun 21 high.