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BoE Bailey on Economy

UK

BOE's estimate of econ scarring is lower than other forecasters.

  • Looking at history is important but easy to get a large figure from this.
  • Largest scarring from 80s/90s when there was a sharp shift between sectors. View now is movements will be within sectors which could have lesser impact on unemployment. Also the sooner out of covid, more businesses will survive.
  • To what extent in change of how we work or buy things?
  • Guess will be changes but the shorter the covid impact, the smaller the lasting effect will be.

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