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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
Implied ECB and BoE rate paths were relatively steady Thursday, particularly notable in the case of the ECB which had seen cut pricing ramp up earlier in the week. While there were few major catalysts in the session, in the case of the ECB pricing especially, a softer German industrial production print helped offset hawkish tones from the Bank of Japan overnight.
- Implied cut pricing for 2024 was steady at 143bp (traded within a range of 141bp and 146bp today). The first cut remains fully priced by the April 2024 meeting, with March implied probability fading a tad (around 5% to 72%). Two cuts are fully priced by June, three by July, four by September, and 5 by October.
- BoE cuts were likewise little changed, with around 85bp of cuts expected from the Feb 2024 peak to end-year, and around 103bp in the year after the peak (about 1bp more than implied yesterday).
- The key potential catalyst Friday is the US employment report - our preview is here.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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