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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
BoE-dated OIS sees an aggressive round of hawkish repricing after the much hotter than expected UK labour market data released earlier this morning, which was punctuated by the firm wage readings.
- That leaves the strip pricing in a little over 115bp of additional tightening in the current BoE cycle, ~9bp above yesterday’s closing levels, with terminal pricing deferred by one meeting to February ’24 as the strip steepens.
- Pricing surrounding the chances of a >25bp hike at some point over the next 4 BoE meetings has become more acute, although the BoE has appeared unwilling to revert to such hiking increments.
- Terminal BoE pricing is still comfortably shy of the min-Budget peaks, when it topped 6.00%.
- This afternoon’s scheduled comments from BoE dove Dhingra will receive extra scrutiny given this morning’s data, while comments from BoE Governor Bailey and newcomer Greene (both in front of parliamentary bodies, with Greene appearing in front of the TSC for her confirmation hearing) will also be eyed.
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Jun-23 | 4.746 | +31.8 |
| Aug-23 | 5.098 | +67.0 |
| Sep-23 | 5.355 | +92.7 |
| Nov-23 | 5.528 | +110.0 |
| Dec-23 | 5.593 | +116.5 |
| Feb-24 | 5.600 | +117.2 |
| Mar-24 | 5.591 | +116.3 |
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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