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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
Pricing for future rate cuts re-deepened Thursday after pulling back slightly Wednesday, with futures markets closing in on 100bp of cuts from each of the the imminent ECB/BoE rate peaks.
- OIS-implied rates suggest 96bp of ECB depo rate cuts over 2024, a new cycle high, and vs 83bp at Monday's close prior to soft US CPI data.
- Pricing for the first full 25bp cut by the June 2024 meeting remains, with odds of an April cut rising (around 90%, vs around 70% at the start of the week - see chart), and a full 50bp of cumulative cuts implied through the July 2024 meeting.
- 93bp of BoE cuts are priced in the year following the implied terminal Bank Rate reached in Feb/Mar 2024, 2-3bp from current levels (5.27-5.28%), vs 79bp coming into US CPI day.
- The first full 25bp cut remains priced by the June MPC, with 50bp through September.
- That's despite reiteration of the higher-for-longer narrative by the MPC's Greene and Ramsden today.
ECB - Dec '23 vs Apr'24 meeting dated OIS bp changeSource: BBG, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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