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BoE / ECB Rate Cut Pricing Edges Back Slightly Wednesday

STIR
ECB and BoE rate cut pricing edged back slightly Wednesday, with the near-term hike outlook little changed.
  • BoE terminal rate pricing faded a little Wednesday amid a broader UK rate rally: a November MPC hike is seen slightly less likely (6bp priced vs 7bp yesterday), with peak rates seen in 12.5bp from now (vs over 13bp yest) in Feb 2024. However, expectations for cuts diminished slightly: there are 72bp of cuts projected in the year following the peak, 3.5bp less than seen yesterday and 8bp less than at Monday's close.
  • ECB hike pricing was little changed Wednesday, with 1bp still seen left in the hiking cycle to December 2023. In early trade, we saw the most cuts priced since Sep 17th, with 75bp in reductions seen over 2024: that reversed to 68bp at present, a little less cutting than seen yesterday.

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