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STIR
ECB and BoE hike pricing remained steady Monday, with UK data (including CPI Wednesday) seen as the next major potential catalyst.
- In particular, the data may help cement conviction toward either a 25bp or 50bp hike at the Feb meeting - 43bp is currently implied (70+% prob of a 50bp raise), with 75bp priced through the second meeting in March. Both of those figures were basically unchanged Monday, with around 100bp of BoE hikes still priced to the cycle peak in August.
- There remains more conviction on a 50bp Feb ECB hike, with hawk Olli Rehn today reiterating a preference for "significant" hikes at the upcoming meetings (92bp is priced through March). Peak pricing of 143bp (at the Jul meeting) was a touch lower on the session.
Source: BBG, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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