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BoE Hike Prospects Fade Again, ECB Static Post-PMIs

STIR

BoE tightening expectations continued to fade Tuesday, in spite of an in-line-to-stronger (but ultimately contractionary) set of PMI data - with partial domestic (partial) labour market data suggesting softer dynamics, or at least no greater urgency for BoE tightening.

  • There's now just 9bp of hikes seen left in the cycle. to the Feb 2023 peak, including <2bp for the Nov meeting. Pricing deepened for cuts one year out from peak, to 66bp (from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025), 8bp more than seen Monday.
  • ECB pricing remained static, with <2bp of hikes priced for the rest of the cycle to Dec 2023, including no move this Thursday. On the back of contractionary Eurozone PMIs (including a weak German services figure) there were an additional 5bp of cuts seen in 2024 priced in though, with 70bp now envisaged, vs 65bp Monday.

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