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BOE: Mann to appear on panel at 13:15BST - but don't expect large market moves

BOE
  • The headline UK event of the day will be a panel appearance by external MPC member Catherine Mann at 13:15BST / 14:15CET in Frankfurt at the CEBRA2024 meeting (Central Bank Research Association). The panel will be on "The Value of Economic Research for Policy" and she will appear alongside Luc Laeven (Director General of Research at the ECB) and BCB Deputy Governor Diogo Abry Guillen.
  • However, it is questionable whether we will have headlines from the panel - there is no livestream (although the video will be available online after the event with a delay) - so we are reliant upon a journalist from one of the wires attending in person.
  • Mann recently conducted an interview with the FT (published just over two weeks ago on 12 August) where she described her level of hawkishness as falling from 10 to 7 this year.
  • Mann is still dissenting against rate cuts, and remains concerned about structural changes to wage behaviour.
  • We don't think that there be large market moves on the back of her comments today for a couple of reasons:
    • First, given that she has made  comments relatively recently we would be very surprised if she notably changed her stance.
    • Second, she is still considered one of the most hawkish members of the MPC - and her vote is not needed for the MPC to cut Bank Rate further.
  • At the time of writing market price around an 18% probability of a September cut, cumulatively price 26bp of cuts by November, 40bp by December and 99bp by June 2025.
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