MNI: BOE CUTS BANK RATE 25BPS TO 4.75% AT NOV MEETING

MNI BRIEF: Record German Insolvencies As Debt, Costs Bite

MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, Nov 11

MNI BRIEF: China FX Reserves Fell In Oct, Gold Purchase Paused

MNI BRIEF: China Oct Exports Grow, Imports Slide

CHINA OCT EXPORTS +12.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +5.0% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: EUROZONE SEP RETAIL SALES +0.5% M/M, +2.9% Y/Y

MNI: EUROZONE OCTOBER CONSTR PMI 43.0; SEP 42.1

MNI: GERMANY SEP INDUSTRIAL PROD -2.5% M/M (FCST -1.0%)

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

FED: Powell's Time Looks Up, Replacement Could Be Less Willing To Cut Rates?

EUROPEAN FISCAL: DE 2025 Budget Gap Grows; Political Risk Is Rising

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

BOE: More dovish press conference to come?

BOE
Bank of EnglandCentral Bank NewsCEEMEABulletUKGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets
  • The MPR develops the BOE's 3 scenario outlook further - and notes that the central forecasts are based on case 2 (which is where we assumed most members other than Mann align).
  • However it does appear as though the MPR leans a bit more towards case 1 (faster cuts) than case 3 (slower cuts).
  • The MPR notes that "Several developments may be consistent with this first case arising." then stating "There are several data developments that may be consistent with pay and price-setting dynamics normalising relatively quickly."
  • On case 3 it notes "A range of developments may support this third case materialising." then states "There are some signs in the data that, were they to continue, may be consistent with this case."
  • So despite the forecasts coming in higher than expected (albeit on stale rate paths), and Bailey's comments accompanying the release on the hawkish side, these hints from the MPR MAY hint towards a more dovish press conference.
155 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • The MPR develops the BOE's 3 scenario outlook further - and notes that the central forecasts are based on case 2 (which is where we assumed most members other than Mann align).
  • However it does appear as though the MPR leans a bit more towards case 1 (faster cuts) than case 3 (slower cuts).
  • The MPR notes that "Several developments may be consistent with this first case arising." then stating "There are several data developments that may be consistent with pay and price-setting dynamics normalising relatively quickly."
  • On case 3 it notes "A range of developments may support this third case materialising." then states "There are some signs in the data that, were they to continue, may be consistent with this case."
  • So despite the forecasts coming in higher than expected (albeit on stale rate paths), and Bailey's comments accompanying the release on the hawkish side, these hints from the MPR MAY hint towards a more dovish press conference.