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BoE Peak Pricing Quietly Hits Multi-Month Highs; ECB Steady

STIR

BoE terminal rate pricing Monday edged to its highest close since April 19's 5.01%, which in turn was the highest since Oct 2022. On the day:

  • BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing +3.2bp to 5.01% by Dec (50bp of further hikes left in the cycle). June hike pricing is 21bp (85+% prob of a 25bp raise). The continued upward repricing was not evidently the result of catalysts Monday, but comes ahead of Wednesday's key CPI release.
  • ECB terminal depo Rate pricing +0.2bp to 3.78% by Oct (54bp of further hikes left in the cycle). June hike pricing is 24bp (95% prob of a 25bp raise). Comments by ECB speakers such as Villeroy and Lane didn't really move the needle.

Source: BBG, MNI

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