MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, March 10

MNI: GERMANY JAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 2.0% M/M

MNI: GERMANY JAN TRADE BALANCE E16.0BLN

MNI BRIEF: Japan Feb Sentiment Drops, Govt Cuts View

MNI: China CFETS Yuan Index Down 0.85% In Week of Mar 7

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY0.5 Bln via OMO Monday

MNI: NORWAY FEB CORE CPI +1% M/M, +3.4% Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY FEB CPI +1.4% M/M, +3.6% Y/Y

MNI: US JAN CONSUMER CREDIT +$18.1B

GERMANY: Union/SPD Migration Alignment After Turmoil Threatened Debt Deal (BILD)

GERMANY: Official Interim Election Results Tilt Towards Missing BSW & FDP

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STIR: BoE Pricing Continues To Show ~55bp Of Cuts Through Dec

STIR
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GBP STIRs little changed vs. late Friday levels.

  • BoE-dated OIS flat to 1bp more dovish across ’25 meetings, showing 20bp of cuts through May, 26bp through June and 54.5bp through year-end. We still look for a cut in May at this stage.
  • SONIA futures flat to +3.5.
  • The latest KPMG-REC report on jobs provided another warning sign when it comes to the health of the UK labour market.
  • Permanent salary growth posted its lowest seasonally adjusted reading for four years, with "weaker demand for staff, improved candidate numbers and tighter budgets" all cited as reasons. Hiring continued to decline, albeit at a slower pace than in January with "recruiters frequently commenting that redundancies had expanded the pool of available workers."
  • That helps explain some of the cross-market outperfromance vs. EUR STIRs.
  • Friday’s monthly economic activity data headlines this week’s UK calendar, with the latest BoE/Ipsos inflation attitudes survey also due to be released on the same day.

BoE Meeting

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GBP STIRs little changed vs. late Friday levels.

  • BoE-dated OIS flat to 1bp more dovish across ’25 meetings, showing 20bp of cuts through May, 26bp through June and 54.5bp through year-end. We still look for a cut in May at this stage.
  • SONIA futures flat to +3.5.
  • The latest KPMG-REC report on jobs provided another warning sign when it comes to the health of the UK labour market.
  • Permanent salary growth posted its lowest seasonally adjusted reading for four years, with "weaker demand for staff, improved candidate numbers and tighter budgets" all cited as reasons. Hiring continued to decline, albeit at a slower pace than in January with "recruiters frequently commenting that redundancies had expanded the pool of available workers."
  • That helps explain some of the cross-market outperfromance vs. EUR STIRs.
  • Friday’s monthly economic activity data headlines this week’s UK calendar, with the latest BoE/Ipsos inflation attitudes survey also due to be released on the same day.

BoE Meeting

Keep reading...Show less