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STIR: BoE Pricing Steady Around 50bp Of Cuts Through Year-End

STIR
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BoE-dated OIS shows 51.5bp of cuts through year-end after printing sub-50bp earlier today.

  • Domestic data helped trim BoE rate cut pricing through year-end this week (a little over 55bp of cuts was priced at last Friday's close), although we don’t expect any of the most recent round of the traditional tier 1 datapoints to impact the outcome and vote split at the Bank’s March meeting.
  • Meanwhile, the PMIs underscored the stagflation risk evident in the UK at present. This will not make for pleasant reading within the MPC, especially with an increasing number of Committee members already appearing to be more attuned to growth concerns as the primary downside economic risk.
  • SONIA futures now -0.25 to +5.5, strip twist flattens.
  • Looking ahead, next week’s UK calendar will be headlined by comments from BoE’s Pill, Ramsden, Dhingra & Lombardelli. Their assessments of the recent data releases and ongoing global uncertainty will be closely eyed, although odds of a March cut remain low given the BoE’s preference for gradual easing.

BoE Meeting

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BoE-dated OIS shows 51.5bp of cuts through year-end after printing sub-50bp earlier today.

  • Domestic data helped trim BoE rate cut pricing through year-end this week (a little over 55bp of cuts was priced at last Friday's close), although we don’t expect any of the most recent round of the traditional tier 1 datapoints to impact the outcome and vote split at the Bank’s March meeting.
  • Meanwhile, the PMIs underscored the stagflation risk evident in the UK at present. This will not make for pleasant reading within the MPC, especially with an increasing number of Committee members already appearing to be more attuned to growth concerns as the primary downside economic risk.
  • SONIA futures now -0.25 to +5.5, strip twist flattens.
  • Looking ahead, next week’s UK calendar will be headlined by comments from BoE’s Pill, Ramsden, Dhingra & Lombardelli. Their assessments of the recent data releases and ongoing global uncertainty will be closely eyed, although odds of a March cut remain low given the BoE’s preference for gradual easing.

BoE Meeting

Keep reading...Show less