BOE: Ramsden Joins Dissent As BoE Vote 7-2 To Hold Rates At 5.25%

The MPC voted 7-2 to maintain Bank Rate at 5.25%, with Deputy Governor Ramsden joining the already dovish Dhingra in voting for a 25bps cut.

• We had assigned a 25% chance of Ramsden voting for a cut in our preview, though half of the 20 sell-side previews we read coming into the decision looked for such a move.
• Otherwise, the policy guidance in the Monetary Policy Statement was largely unchanged, with policy still needing to remain "restrictive for an extended period of time".
• One addition in the final paragraph was that the "Committee will consider forthcoming data releases and how these inform the assessment that the risks from inflation persistence are receding", although there was no acknowledgement of quantifiable targets.
• The Statement noted that "upside risks to the near-term inflation outlook from geopolitical factors remain". As such, the 2024/2025 inflation forecasts (on market rates) exhibited a small positive skew.
• Nonetheless, the inflation profile was lowered through the forecast horizon. Q2 2026 CPI inflation was projected at 1.9% Y/Y (vs 2.2% in the Feb MPR), before falling to 1.6% in 3-years time.