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Free AccessBOE Sees Inflation Peak at 13.3% in Oct, Enegry The Driver
The Bank of England's August monetary policy report lifted the expected peak infFation to 13.3% in October, this is around 2pp hotter than in the May forecast.
- This is driven by intensifying global price pressures and the Ofgem price cap rise to around 75% (vs the May assumption of 40%).
- Due to some signs of easing global pressures, the BOE shifted from highlighting upside inflationary risks to a more balanced risk assessment. An increase in global energy and commodity prices due to knock-on effects of the Ukraine war and Covid resurgence risks would shock to the upside, whilst agreements easing grain exports and geopolitical tensions or efficient substitution of goods in efforts to ease supply shortages could all see inflationary pressures easing faster,
- Risks to GDP are also seen as balanced, as business sentiment continues to see some activity growth and could underscore more resilient demand than currently anticipated.
- Labour market resilience could underpin this, especially if pandemic savings continue to act as a buffer. Current forecasts imply five consecutive quarters of negative growth through Q4 2022 and 2023.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.