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BOE: What we know about new MPC member Alan Taylor

BOE
  • Last week saw the announcement that Alan Taylor would replace Haskel as an external MPC member on 1 September (following the end of Haskel’s second non-renewable term). Taylor will initially be appointed on a once-renewable 3-year term.
  • Not much is known on Taylor’s recent UK views, but he is a well respected economist who is a professor at Columbia University having originally been born in the UK. He also has experience in financial markets, having worked as a global economist at Morgan Stanley and as an advisor at PIMCO.
  • He has written prominent papers on PPP (purchasing power parity of exchange rates) and international trade.
  • His research a few years ago into r* did suggest that he thought it was a little lower than comparable estimates, but this work was largely based on pre-Covid estimates – so isn’t necessarily fully consistent with his current views on the UK economy.
  • Where is he therefore likely to sit on the spectrum of the MPC? He is replacing Haskel, so even if he is very hawkish the composition of the MPC would not have changed. The more likely and impactful scenario is that the balance of the MPC will shift a bit more to the dovish side.
  • Given his focus on international economics and trade the MPC member with the most similar current background is Dhingra (who is of course by far the most dovish members). We are not saying that Taylor is likely to be as dovish as Dhingra, of course, but it seems likely that the balance of the MPC can only become less rather than more hawkish from his appointment.
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