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BofA Expect Brent to Average $80/bbl in 2024 and 2025

OIL

Brent crude prices are expected to average $80/bbl in 2024 and 2025 with a balanced market according to BofA.

  • “Oil prices should stay anchored near-term” amid “substantial non-OPEC+ supply growth over the next few years.”
  • Rising spare production capacity to 5mb/d due to OPEC+ production cuts and non-OPEC+ supply growth is expected to cap upside while “OPEC+ has shown it can set a floor of $70.”
  • Brent is expected to average between $60 and $80 into 2029 with little change in the medium term.
  • Oil demand growth may have peaked with 2.3mb/d growth last year and estimated to slow to 1.3mb/d this year and 700kb/d between 2026-29.
  • Non-OPEC supply growth could average 700kb/d in 2024-29 but slower growth than previous estimates.
  • “While OPEC+ will likely try to force oil prices above $90/bbl, a big price spike seems unlikely barring large supply disruptions.”

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