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BofA: Labor Market Cooling Modestly But Still Tight

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • BofA expect NFP growth of 200k for little change from June’s 209k, with public payrolls continuing to account for a sizeable share at 30k, with private rising 170k.
  • Public payrolls have accounted for more than 20% of jobs added in the first half of this year, which is well above the 6% average seen from 2015-2019.
  • AHE seen rising 0.3% M/M (4.2% Y/Y) to suggest labor market conditions are cooling modestly. They take signal from the ongoing, albeit slow decline in job openings according to the BLS and Indeed. Weekly hours seen ticking a tenth lower to 34.3, reversing the June increase and at pre-pandemic levels.
  • The unemployment rate is seen holding at 3.6% along with an unchanged participation rate at 62.6% for the fifth consecutive month.
  • "We do not expect the resolution to negotiations between the teamsters union and UPS will affect the July employment report. The strike, which would have totaled 340k workers, or 0.2% of total nonfarm payrolls, was slated to start on August 1. However, the deal averted the strike and the union won fairly significant wage increases over a five year period. The first wage increase kicks in on August 1 and while it is sizeable, we think it will be a rounding error in the AHE calculation."
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