BofA: Mon Pol Continuity, Uncertainty For Regulation

BofA expect continuity for the path of monetary policy but highlight the risk of greater regulatory oversight and for the new Board appointees to overweight the importance of broad-based maximum employment. Potential Board contenders below.

• "Both Powell and Brainard will need to be confirmed by the Senate with a simple majority. Powell should not face opposition given the overwhelming support for his first term (of the 84 confirmations he received then, 69 Senators are still in office). We expect Brainard to also have sufficient support."
• There is a question "over the timing given the full Senate calendar between the holidays. There is breathing room, however, since Clarida will remain in his position until January and Powell's term isn't up until Feb 5th".
• "Possible contenders for the VC of Supervision include Sarah Raskin (previous Fed Governor), Michael Hsu (acting comptroller of the currency) and Kathryn Judge (expert on financial markets and regulation at Columbia Law School). All likely to be more stringent on regulations than Quarles, the only question is the degree".
• "Shortlist contenders for a macro role are Lisa Cook (Michigan State University economist) and William Sprigg (chief economist at AFL-CIO and economics professor at Howard University)".