BofA On Asian Exports & FX, Looking For A Better H2

BofA note... 'While there is a lot of focus on developments outside Asia, disappointing export data have at least partly contributed to the pullback in Asian currencies from the early-Feb highs. Indeed, Asia export data surprises are at their most negative levels in years despite hopes for a recovery in China's import impulse. Despite this, not to mention headwinds from a likely recession in Western economies, we see reasons for optimism on the export cycle and therefore Asia FX, especially for 2H 2023. Moreover, while Asia FX levels seemed close to "perfectly priced' for China's reopening at the end of January, this is no longer the case. While external conditions related to global banking stress need to stabilize for a meaningful recovery, we expect China's import impulse to prove more supportive for Asia FX from mid-2023 onward.'