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BofA See USD/CHF Upside Attractive Ahead of SNB

CHF
  • BofA write that US growth leadership has been responsible for the USD outperforming over the past week, and they find more USD-supportive quant signals from option flow, technical trends, and cross-asset signals.
  • They see USDCHF as the most attractive pair ahead of the SNB. They write that investors have sold USDCHF month-to-date on the back of carry position unwinds, but the 200d SMA support is holding.
  • Valuation metrics such as rate differential and 10-week SMA now suggest CHF is overvalued respectively by 4% and 2% in spot terms vs USD. They see the SNB cutting rates by another 25bps and as the decision has not been fully priced in by the market, they see higher USDCHF.

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