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CHINA: BofAML: "After the notable increase in US-China trade conflict risk in
March this year, we have shifted our policy call away from further Chinese
deleveraging. In our view, Chinese policy makers will unlikely choose to
intensify deleveraging efforts before the dust on trade negotiations settles. To
avoid a double-whammy from a potential trade shock and domestic overtightening,
we believe top decision makers will hold back additional deleveraging efforts
until there is more certainty on the trade front."
- "While one could argue the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut has a small
liquidity impact (partly to be offset by expiring Medium-term Lending Facility
(MLF)), we still think the move signals a tipping point in liquidity. First, it
replaces short-term liquidity provided by MLF with long-term liquidity through
the RRR cut. Second, the PBoC is often concerned about sending the wrong message
if they take the policy advice to cut RRR during deleveraging. The very fact
that the central bankers know it will be seen as easing and still went ahead to
do it implies there was an intentional signaling effect.