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BOJ: CPI Trend, Wages, US Economy Key BoJ Watch Points

BOJ
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The BoJ Summary of Opinions from the September policy meeting gave a cautious outlook in terms of future policy adjustments. One of the key sentences we took away when talking about the economy was "In considering any further policy interest rate hike, attention is warranted for the time being on consumer prices, the momentum toward next year's annual spring labor-management wage negotiations, and developments in the U.S. economy." See this link here. 

  • The Summary of Opinions expressed broader confidence in the outlook and that further policy adjustments can be made. One member advocating tightening to 1% in the second half of the fiscal 2025 year (at the earliest).
  • Still, there seems no rush to move to this point rapidly for most other board members. The heightened uncertainty around the US outlook, how aggressive the Fed easing cycle will be and what impact this will have on the yen were also cited as watchpoints.
  • The other big focus point from the opinions was the need to make communications more clearer, particularly if BoJ/market views diverged. 
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The BoJ Summary of Opinions from the September policy meeting gave a cautious outlook in terms of future policy adjustments. One of the key sentences we took away when talking about the economy was "In considering any further policy interest rate hike, attention is warranted for the time being on consumer prices, the momentum toward next year's annual spring labor-management wage negotiations, and developments in the U.S. economy." See this link here. 

  • The Summary of Opinions expressed broader confidence in the outlook and that further policy adjustments can be made. One member advocating tightening to 1% in the second half of the fiscal 2025 year (at the earliest).
  • Still, there seems no rush to move to this point rapidly for most other board members. The heightened uncertainty around the US outlook, how aggressive the Fed easing cycle will be and what impact this will have on the yen were also cited as watchpoints.
  • The other big focus point from the opinions was the need to make communications more clearer, particularly if BoJ/market views diverged.