December 24, 2024 00:02 GMT
STIR: BOJ Dated OIS Slightly Softer Than Pre-Dec MPM
STIR
BOJ-dated OIS pricing is marginally softer than pre-Dec MPM levels.
- Nevertheless, pricing remains 3-13bps firmer beyond January versus pre-October MPM levels, with the September/October 2025 contracts showing the strongest gains.
- Market expectations currently indicate: a 37% probability of a 25bp hike in January; a cumulative 95% chance by May; and a full 25bp increase not fully priced in until June 2025.
- A full 25bp hike had been priced by May before the December MPM.
Figure 1: BOJ-Dated OIS – Today Vs. Pre-BOJ MPM (October)
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
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