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STIR: BoJ Dated OIS Softer Than Pre-BoJ Hike Levels

STIR

BoJ-dated OIS pricing is flat to 6bps softer across meetings compared to pre-MPM levels. 

  • Market expectations going into last Friday’s MPM indicated a 98% probability of a 25bp hike today, a cumulative 99% chance by March, and more than a full 25bp increase by May 2025 (108%).
  • As it currently stands, March has a 0% chance of another 25bp hike. A 25bp increase is not fully priced until December.

 

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BoJ-dated OIS pricing is flat to 6bps softer across meetings compared to pre-MPM levels. 

  • Market expectations going into last Friday’s MPM indicated a 98% probability of a 25bp hike today, a cumulative 99% chance by March, and more than a full 25bp increase by May 2025 (108%).
  • As it currently stands, March has a 0% chance of another 25bp hike. A 25bp increase is not fully priced until December.

 

Keep reading...Show less