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MNI Global Week Ahead - US CPI and Powell Testimony In Focus

The week ahead is headlined by US January CPI.
Story
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
 

Developed Markets

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY - Fed Chair Powell Semi-annual Testimony

Fed Chair Powell is due to deliver testimony on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress on Feb 11-12, starting with the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs on Tuesday (1000ET/1500GMT), and to the House Committee on Financial Services on Wednesday (also 1000ET/1500GMT). These don't always result in market-moving comments but often do, with the previous testimony in July for example seeing a dovish reaction to Powell's remark that "it doesn't seem likely" that the FOMC's next move would be a hike. The Fed is in data-dependent mode as it decides when and indeed if to cut rates further, so we will be looking for Powell's first reaction to the January employment report, which showed substantial historical revisions alongside a lower unemployment rate and greater wage pressures, and the January CPI report which is released shortly before his House session. Powell's also likely to receive questions on the future path of policy rates and how the FOMC will react to shifts in fiscal and trade policy, but with the occasion calling for an even more apolitical take than usual, he is likely to be evasive (as he said in January: "this is no different than any other set of policy changes at the beginning of an administration...we'll patiently watch and understand and kind of not be in a hurry to get to a place of understanding what our policy response should be until we see how it plays out.") He's likely to reiterate in some form that "we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance", with policy "well-positioned" to address developments as they arise, though once again we will be interested in how he characterizes the current degree of policy restrictiveness (Powell in January: "not highly restrictive, but meaningfully restrictive").

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See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
 

Developed Markets

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY - Fed Chair Powell Semi-annual Testimony

Fed Chair Powell is due to deliver testimony on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress on Feb 11-12, starting with the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs on Tuesday (1000ET/1500GMT), and to the House Committee on Financial Services on Wednesday (also 1000ET/1500GMT). These don't always result in market-moving comments but often do, with the previous testimony in July for example seeing a dovish reaction to Powell's remark that "it doesn't seem likely" that the FOMC's next move would be a hike. The Fed is in data-dependent mode as it decides when and indeed if to cut rates further, so we will be looking for Powell's first reaction to the January employment report, which showed substantial historical revisions alongside a lower unemployment rate and greater wage pressures, and the January CPI report which is released shortly before his House session. Powell's also likely to receive questions on the future path of policy rates and how the FOMC will react to shifts in fiscal and trade policy, but with the occasion calling for an even more apolitical take than usual, he is likely to be evasive (as he said in January: "this is no different than any other set of policy changes at the beginning of an administration...we'll patiently watch and understand and kind of not be in a hurry to get to a place of understanding what our policy response should be until we see how it plays out.") He's likely to reiterate in some form that "we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance", with policy "well-positioned" to address developments as they arise, though once again we will be interested in how he characterizes the current degree of policy restrictiveness (Powell in January: "not highly restrictive, but meaningfully restrictive").

Keep reading...Show less