Free Trial

BoJ Decision Today, No Changes To Policy Parameters Expected

JGBS

In post-Tokyo trade, JGB futures are slightly weaker, closing -8 compared to settlement levels, after US tsys finished 1-3bps cheaper across the major benchmarks on Monday, light bear steepening was apparent. Tsys firmed from session lows, trimming earlier losses as US Equities continued their post-FOMC rally which aided risk sentiment into the close on Monday. The S&P500 rose ~0.5%, and the NASDAQ climbed ~0.6% to finish at a fresh record close.

  • (Wall Street Journal) -- A Federal Reserve official (SF Fed Mary Daly) said it is appropriate for the central bank to begin looking ahead to lowering interest rates in 2024 because of how inflation has improved this year. (See BBG link)
  • Earlier in the session Fedspeak from Chicago Fed President Goolsbee and Cleveland Fed President Mester, who both sought to moderate market expectations on rate cuts weighed on the space.
  • Oil firmed as major shipping lines suspended transit through the Red Sea, which applied marginal pressure to Tsys.
  • Today, the local calendar sees the BOJ Policy Decision. Our analysis aligns with the prevailing consensus, which once again foresees the BoJ keeping all key targets and YCC parameters unchanged.
  • Despite previous surprises in July and October, coupled with December last year, indications suggest a different outcome this time. The likelihood of the BoJ terminating its negative interest rate policy (NIRP) without prior adjustments to forward guidance appears low. See the MNI BoJ Preview here.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.