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Bolsonaro Chipping Away At Lula Lead In Polls Ahead Of Runoff

BRAZIL
  • Lula 52%, Bolsonaro 48% Valid Votes in Runoff Poll: Exame/Ideia (BBG)
  • Scenario of valid votes, which exclude undecided and blanks and null ballots, is considered a technical tie due to the margin of error of 3ppt, according to Exame/Ideia poll.
    • Considering total votes, former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has 50%, while President Jair Bolsonaro has 46%, showing a negative oscillation of Lula and a positive oscillation of Bolsonaro compared to the previous poll.
  • Political analyst Brian Winter, the Editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly, has voiced his opinion that with each passing day, Bolsonaro closes the gap a little more, thanks to, in approximate order of importance 1) A massive social media campaign, real and fake, aimed particularly at religious voters 2) Billions in govt spending aimed at buying votes from poor, truckers, others and 3) the overall improvement of Brazil’s economy, inflation now lower than US.
    • “My sense is Lula still leads and ultimately will win, but by small margin — which will create problems later”, he said via twitter.
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