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BONDS: Bunds and Gilts Off Intraday Highs As Markets Stabilise Post Risk-off

BONDS
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Bund futures reached an intraday high of 136.20 after the Iran/Israel-induced volatility, but have fallen back to 135.88 at typing. Today’s rally nonetheless led to a push through key resistance and the bull trigger at 135.66, a sustained breach of which would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend.

  • French PM Barnier did not provide details of specific policies to improve the country’s fiscal situation in his address to Parliament. This seemingly helped the 10-year OAT/Bund spread away from intraday tights, currently 1bp tighter at 78bps (vs a low of 75bps earlier).
  • The BTP/Bund spread has also retraced this morning’s tightening, with the geopolitical risk-off moves weighing on global equities.
  • ECB-dated OIS continue to price 22bps of easing through the October meeting, with 153bps of cuts now priced through June ’25.

Gilt futures were unable to register a clear break of the 20-day EMA at 99.40 earlier, keeping a bearish technical threat present in the contract. 

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Bund futures reached an intraday high of 136.20 after the Iran/Israel-induced volatility, but have fallen back to 135.88 at typing. Today’s rally nonetheless led to a push through key resistance and the bull trigger at 135.66, a sustained breach of which would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend.

  • French PM Barnier did not provide details of specific policies to improve the country’s fiscal situation in his address to Parliament. This seemingly helped the 10-year OAT/Bund spread away from intraday tights, currently 1bp tighter at 78bps (vs a low of 75bps earlier).
  • The BTP/Bund spread has also retraced this morning’s tightening, with the geopolitical risk-off moves weighing on global equities.
  • ECB-dated OIS continue to price 22bps of easing through the October meeting, with 153bps of cuts now priced through June ’25.

Gilt futures were unable to register a clear break of the 20-day EMA at 99.40 earlier, keeping a bearish technical threat present in the contract. 

Keep reading...Show less