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BONDS: First EU-bond Auction Since MSCI Rejection Sees Improved Results

BONDS

Today’s EU-bond auction was the first since MSCI rejected plans to add EU debt to its sovereign indexes.

  • Although the lowest accepted price (99.390) for the 2.75% Oct-26 EU-bond was slightly below the pre-auction mid-price (99.934), the bid-to-cover of 1.44x was an improvement on the 1.05x seen in the February reopening.
  • The 3.00% Dec-34 EU-bond also saw an improved bid-to-cover, and a lowest accepted price in excess of the pre-auction mid price.
  • The spread between the 3.00% Dec-34 EU-bond and the on-the-run 2.20% Feb-34 Bund has widened from around 55bps before the June 12 MSCI announcement to ~65bps at typing, though French political uncertainty also contributed to spread widening in that period.
  • As we noted after the announcement, we still expect government bond index inclusion at some point, with MSCI noting in their press release that they would "re-evaluate the eligibility criteria (for EU-bonds) in Q225."

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