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BONDS: Fresh Bid For Equities & Bonds

BONDS
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

Fresh bids in equities and Tsys in recent trade, e-mini S&P 500 hits fresh session highs.

  • TY still below session highs.
  • 10s and 30-Year yields hit fresh ’24 lows (~3.60% & ~3.90%, respectively).
  • Curve twist flattens, yields +1bp to -2bp.
  • ~41bp of cuts priced into Fed funds futures for tomorrow’s decision, little changed vs. yesterday.
  • Gilt futures trade to fresh incremental highs as well, while Bunds remain below best levels.
  • German yields little changed to 3bp lower, curve flattens.
  • UK yields 0.5-2.5bp lower, bull flattening, reversing light steepening seen around this morning’s long end auction.
  • U.S. retail sales data headlines today’s macro calendar.
  • We have already noted that the release could have an outsized impact at cementing pricing for a 50bp Fed cut if there are signs of weakness, whilst it feels like a beat would have to be particularly large to shift pricing closer to a 25bp move.
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Fresh bids in equities and Tsys in recent trade, e-mini S&P 500 hits fresh session highs.

  • TY still below session highs.
  • 10s and 30-Year yields hit fresh ’24 lows (~3.60% & ~3.90%, respectively).
  • Curve twist flattens, yields +1bp to -2bp.
  • ~41bp of cuts priced into Fed funds futures for tomorrow’s decision, little changed vs. yesterday.
  • Gilt futures trade to fresh incremental highs as well, while Bunds remain below best levels.
  • German yields little changed to 3bp lower, curve flattens.
  • UK yields 0.5-2.5bp lower, bull flattening, reversing light steepening seen around this morning’s long end auction.
  • U.S. retail sales data headlines today’s macro calendar.
  • We have already noted that the release could have an outsized impact at cementing pricing for a 50bp Fed cut if there are signs of weakness, whilst it feels like a beat would have to be particularly large to shift pricing closer to a 25bp move.