MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, November 27

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BONDS: Hawkish Schnabel Comments Push 10-Year Gilt/Bunds Away From Cycle Highs

BONDS
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Hawkish comments from ECB’s Schnabel leave 10-Year gilt/Bunds ~2bp tighter on the day, spread back to 214.5bp after registering a fresh cycle closing high at 216.6bp on Tuesday.

  • Still, French fiscal & political worry continues to underpin core global FI markets on pullbacks.
  • As noted yesterday, fresh extension higher in the spread would switch focus to the mini-Budget ’22 closing high of 227.5bp.
  • Recent widening promoted by downbeat European data flow and pricing of more forceful ECB easing vs. the BoE’s gradualist approach and stickier inflation outlook in the UK.
  • UK fiscal policy also a factor, as are relative betas to U.S. Tsys.

Fig. 1: 10-Year Gilt/Bund Spread

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Hawkish comments from ECB’s Schnabel leave 10-Year gilt/Bunds ~2bp tighter on the day, spread back to 214.5bp after registering a fresh cycle closing high at 216.6bp on Tuesday.

  • Still, French fiscal & political worry continues to underpin core global FI markets on pullbacks.
  • As noted yesterday, fresh extension higher in the spread would switch focus to the mini-Budget ’22 closing high of 227.5bp.
  • Recent widening promoted by downbeat European data flow and pricing of more forceful ECB easing vs. the BoE’s gradualist approach and stickier inflation outlook in the UK.
  • UK fiscal policy also a factor, as are relative betas to U.S. Tsys.

Fig. 1: 10-Year Gilt/Bund Spread

Keep reading...Show less