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BONDS: NZGBS: Closed Cheaper, H/H Spending Up Again

BONDS
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

NZGBs closed 1-3bps cheaper across benchmarks, aligning with cash US tsys, which are also flat to 3bps cheaper in the Asia-Pac session today with a flattening bias. US tsys reopened today after being closed for the Veterans Day holiday yesterday.

  • NZ retail card spending posted a third consecutive monthly rise in October up 0.6% m/m after 0.1%. Total spending rose 0.4% m/m after 0.3% and is now slightly positive on a year ago. The start of easing in August appears to have allowed households to begin to spend again.
  • Westpac sees the October data as “encouraging” and that there should be further rises once past and future rate cuts are fully felt. Westpac observes that “most mortgages have not come up for refixing yet. In addition, further cuts from the RBNZ are expected over the coming months (we’re forecasting another 50bp cut at the upcoming November meeting).”
  • Swap rates closed 1-3bps higher, with a flattening bias.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed 3-8bps firmer across 2025 meetings. A cumulative 89bps of easing is priced by February, with 52bps by year-end.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Net Migration data, ahead of REINZ House Sales and Food Prices on Thursday. 
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NZGBs closed 1-3bps cheaper across benchmarks, aligning with cash US tsys, which are also flat to 3bps cheaper in the Asia-Pac session today with a flattening bias. US tsys reopened today after being closed for the Veterans Day holiday yesterday.

  • NZ retail card spending posted a third consecutive monthly rise in October up 0.6% m/m after 0.1%. Total spending rose 0.4% m/m after 0.3% and is now slightly positive on a year ago. The start of easing in August appears to have allowed households to begin to spend again.
  • Westpac sees the October data as “encouraging” and that there should be further rises once past and future rate cuts are fully felt. Westpac observes that “most mortgages have not come up for refixing yet. In addition, further cuts from the RBNZ are expected over the coming months (we’re forecasting another 50bp cut at the upcoming November meeting).”
  • Swap rates closed 1-3bps higher, with a flattening bias.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed 3-8bps firmer across 2025 meetings. A cumulative 89bps of easing is priced by February, with 52bps by year-end.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Net Migration data, ahead of REINZ House Sales and Food Prices on Thursday.