MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, October 14

MNI BRIEF: China Sep M2 Rises To Four-Month High

MNI BRIEF: China Foreign Trade Grow Steady; Exports +4.3% YTD

MNI BRIEF: China Foreign Trade Facing Pressure In Q4

CHINA YTD NEW LOANS CNY16.0 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY16.3 TRLN: PBOC

CHINA SEP EXPORTS +2.4% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +6.0% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.2% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

MNI BRIEF: China Sep CPI Slows To 0.4% Y/Y On Base Effects

MNI: USDA: 2024/2025 CORN PRODUCTION EST 15.20B BSL

CANADA: Politics Week: Parliament Opens With Early Election Threats

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

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BONDS: NZGBS Closed Weaker, Belly Of Curve Underperforming, CPI On Wed

BONDS
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets
  • NZGBs closed 3-6.5bps cheaper, with the belly of the curve underperforming. Bonds yields are trading off session highs with the 2yr +3.5bps at 3.969% vs session highs of 4.01%, while the 10yr is +5.1bps at 4.436% vs 4.469%
  • New Zealand's consumer spending remained weak in Q3, with card purchases falling 0.7%, following a 2.8% decline in Q2. The economy contracted in Q2 with subdued spending adding to risks that the contraction will extend into the 3Q even as modest income tax cuts took effect at the end of July.
  • Swaps rates closed 2-7bps higher
  • RBNZ dated OIS was little changed today, the market expects 50bps of cuts at the next meeting, and 88bps of cut by Feb. Looking further out the curve there is 164bps priced to October, which would take it to 264bps of cuts through this easing cycle.
  • Cross asset: The NZ50 closed 0.50% lower, after Fisher & Pykel and Infratil dropped over 1% each, offsetting gains in ANZ & WBC. The NZD fell 0.30% following disappointing headlines out of China.
  • Looking ahead, tomorrow REINZ House Sales is due out, although this should have little impact on the market, with focus turning to CPI on Wednesday.
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  • NZGBs closed 3-6.5bps cheaper, with the belly of the curve underperforming. Bonds yields are trading off session highs with the 2yr +3.5bps at 3.969% vs session highs of 4.01%, while the 10yr is +5.1bps at 4.436% vs 4.469%
  • New Zealand's consumer spending remained weak in Q3, with card purchases falling 0.7%, following a 2.8% decline in Q2. The economy contracted in Q2 with subdued spending adding to risks that the contraction will extend into the 3Q even as modest income tax cuts took effect at the end of July.
  • Swaps rates closed 2-7bps higher
  • RBNZ dated OIS was little changed today, the market expects 50bps of cuts at the next meeting, and 88bps of cut by Feb. Looking further out the curve there is 164bps priced to October, which would take it to 264bps of cuts through this easing cycle.
  • Cross asset: The NZ50 closed 0.50% lower, after Fisher & Pykel and Infratil dropped over 1% each, offsetting gains in ANZ & WBC. The NZD fell 0.30% following disappointing headlines out of China.
  • Looking ahead, tomorrow REINZ House Sales is due out, although this should have little impact on the market, with focus turning to CPI on Wednesday.