MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

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AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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BONDS: NZGBS: Closed With A Bear-Steepener, US Jobless Claims In Focus

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NZGBs closed cheaper, with benchmark yields 2-4bps higher, although off the worst levels.

  • Today’s weekly supply saw mediocre demand for the May-31 and May-34 bonds, with cover ratios around 1.6x. The Apr-37 bond saw a more respectable 2.96x.
  • The RBNZ will strongly consider a 50bp cut to the 5.25% official cash rate when it meets next week and look to solidify a faster-easing tempo when it updates its forecasts following December's decision, former RBNZ staffers told MNI.
  • New Zealand business leaders want the government to explore ways of reducing the nation’s structural budget deficit, which could include a tax on capital gains. (per BBG)
  • NZ’s commodity export prices rose 1.8% m/m in September.
  • Swap rates closed flat to 3bps higher, with the 2s10s curve steeper.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed 1-2bps firmer for 2025 meetings. A cumulative 93bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Filled Jobs data. The RBNZ will deliver its policy decision next Wednesday.
  • Today’s US calendar will see Weekly Claims, Factory/Durable Goods Orders and ISM Services, followed by Friday's headline Non-Farm Payrolls for September.
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NZGBs closed cheaper, with benchmark yields 2-4bps higher, although off the worst levels.

  • Today’s weekly supply saw mediocre demand for the May-31 and May-34 bonds, with cover ratios around 1.6x. The Apr-37 bond saw a more respectable 2.96x.
  • The RBNZ will strongly consider a 50bp cut to the 5.25% official cash rate when it meets next week and look to solidify a faster-easing tempo when it updates its forecasts following December's decision, former RBNZ staffers told MNI.
  • New Zealand business leaders want the government to explore ways of reducing the nation’s structural budget deficit, which could include a tax on capital gains. (per BBG)
  • NZ’s commodity export prices rose 1.8% m/m in September.
  • Swap rates closed flat to 3bps higher, with the 2s10s curve steeper.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed 1-2bps firmer for 2025 meetings. A cumulative 93bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Filled Jobs data. The RBNZ will deliver its policy decision next Wednesday.
  • Today’s US calendar will see Weekly Claims, Factory/Durable Goods Orders and ISM Services, followed by Friday's headline Non-Farm Payrolls for September.