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BONDS: NZGBS: Closed With A Twist-Flattener As Market Prices Out Some Easing

BONDS
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NZGBs showed a twist-flattening at the close, with yields 2bps higher to 2bps lower. 

  • Stronger NZ consumer confidence looks to have weighed on short-end pricing, with the long-end taking its lead from US tsys, which are 1-2bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s holiday.
  • NZ-US 10-year yield differential closed 1bp wider at +14bps, while the NZ-AU differential was 1bp tighter at +2bp.
  • NZ housing and personal consumer lending rose 3.4% on an annual basis in October, following a 3.3% increase in September. Business lending went up 1.1%, lower than the 2% growth rate in September. Agriculture lending rose 1% following a 1.6% increase.
  • Swap rates closed flat to 2bps higher, with the 2s10s curve flatter.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is flat to 7bps firmer on the day, October 2025 leading, but 4-12bps firmer than Wednesday’s pre-RBNZ decision levels. 42bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 91bps by November 2025.
  • On Monday, the local calendar will see Building Permits data. 
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NZGBs showed a twist-flattening at the close, with yields 2bps higher to 2bps lower. 

  • Stronger NZ consumer confidence looks to have weighed on short-end pricing, with the long-end taking its lead from US tsys, which are 1-2bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s holiday.
  • NZ-US 10-year yield differential closed 1bp wider at +14bps, while the NZ-AU differential was 1bp tighter at +2bp.
  • NZ housing and personal consumer lending rose 3.4% on an annual basis in October, following a 3.3% increase in September. Business lending went up 1.1%, lower than the 2% growth rate in September. Agriculture lending rose 1% following a 1.6% increase.
  • Swap rates closed flat to 2bps higher, with the 2s10s curve flatter.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is flat to 7bps firmer on the day, October 2025 leading, but 4-12bps firmer than Wednesday’s pre-RBNZ decision levels. 42bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 91bps by November 2025.
  • On Monday, the local calendar will see Building Permits data.