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BONDS: NZGBS: Richer, US Tsys Gain On Friday After US PCE Data

BONDS
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NZGBs are 4bps richer in local morning trade after US tsys finished Friday’s session with broad-based gains.
• Curves recovered some ground after Thursday’s flattening as US data underscored a rise in projected rate cuts into early 2025 gained vs. pre-data levels (*): Nov'24 cumulative -38.5bp (-37.2bp), Dec'24 -76.8bp (-73.9bp), Jan'25 -109.5bp (-104.5bp).
• Personal income and spending were a little softer than expected in August on a nominal basis, but in "real" terms this was a solid report and data going back to the start of the year were largely revised in a stronger direction.
• Core PCE inflation confirmed trend rates very similar to what Fed Governor Waller had indicated recently. That left inflation over the last four months a little below the 2% PCE target and “supercore” inflation almost at target (although both are a little stronger recently).
• The US calendar has a relatively quiet start to next week with MNI Chicago PMI today.
• Swap rates are 4bps lower.
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing is slightly softer across meetings. A cumulative 88bps of easing is priced by year-end.
• Today, the local calendar will see ANZ Business Confidence.

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NZGBs are 4bps richer in local morning trade after US tsys finished Friday’s session with broad-based gains.
• Curves recovered some ground after Thursday’s flattening as US data underscored a rise in projected rate cuts into early 2025 gained vs. pre-data levels (*): Nov'24 cumulative -38.5bp (-37.2bp), Dec'24 -76.8bp (-73.9bp), Jan'25 -109.5bp (-104.5bp).
• Personal income and spending were a little softer than expected in August on a nominal basis, but in "real" terms this was a solid report and data going back to the start of the year were largely revised in a stronger direction.
• Core PCE inflation confirmed trend rates very similar to what Fed Governor Waller had indicated recently. That left inflation over the last four months a little below the 2% PCE target and “supercore” inflation almost at target (although both are a little stronger recently).
• The US calendar has a relatively quiet start to next week with MNI Chicago PMI today.
• Swap rates are 4bps lower.
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing is slightly softer across meetings. A cumulative 88bps of easing is priced by year-end.
• Today, the local calendar will see ANZ Business Confidence.