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BONDS: NZGBS: Risks With US Tsys Following Middle East Attacks

BONDS
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In local morning trade, NZGBs are 4-6bps richer after US tsys finished stronger with EGBs in response to Israel’s ground assault in southern Lebanon. The rally then extended as wires reported Iran had launched dozens of ballistic missiles at Israel. 

  • However, US tsys finished off session bests as IDF officials reported "no additional threats" after the missile attack was largely intercepted in transit to Israel and Israelis were allowed to exit shelters. Iran's foreign minister stated on X that his country’s action is concluded unless Israel “decides to invite further retaliation.”
  • Geopolitical risks overshadowed the day's ISM Mfg miss and higher-than-expected job openings data.
  • The latest GDT auction saw the weighted average price for all milk products rise 3% to $3,851 per ton.
  • Auckland's average house price fell by 2.4% in September to NZ$1,081,069, continuing declines from August and July, according to Barfoot & Thompson.
  • Swap rates are
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing 1-5bps softer across meetings, with 44bps or a 76% chance of a 50bp cut next week. The market is pricing in 92bps of cuts now by November.
  • The calendar is light for the remainder of the week, with just ANZ Commodity prices tomorrow.
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In local morning trade, NZGBs are 4-6bps richer after US tsys finished stronger with EGBs in response to Israel’s ground assault in southern Lebanon. The rally then extended as wires reported Iran had launched dozens of ballistic missiles at Israel. 

  • However, US tsys finished off session bests as IDF officials reported "no additional threats" after the missile attack was largely intercepted in transit to Israel and Israelis were allowed to exit shelters. Iran's foreign minister stated on X that his country’s action is concluded unless Israel “decides to invite further retaliation.”
  • Geopolitical risks overshadowed the day's ISM Mfg miss and higher-than-expected job openings data.
  • The latest GDT auction saw the weighted average price for all milk products rise 3% to $3,851 per ton.
  • Auckland's average house price fell by 2.4% in September to NZ$1,081,069, continuing declines from August and July, according to Barfoot & Thompson.
  • Swap rates are
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing 1-5bps softer across meetings, with 44bps or a 76% chance of a 50bp cut next week. The market is pricing in 92bps of cuts now by November.
  • The calendar is light for the remainder of the week, with just ANZ Commodity prices tomorrow.