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BONDS: NZGBS: Slightly Mixed But Underperformed $-Bloc Despite Weak Data

BONDS
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

NZGBs closed slightly mixed, settling near the middle of today’s range, with benchmark yields fluctuating within +/-1bp. The NZGB 10-year underperformed relative to its $-bloc counterparts, with the NZ–US yield differential widening by 1bp and the NZ–AU differential widening by 5bps. 

  • The local market was likely supported by the news today that NZ’s manufacturing industry contracted for a record 20th consecutive month, reinforcing signs the economy will need further stimulus to get back up to speed.
  • Cash US tsys are flat to 2bps cheaper, with a steepening bias, in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s twist-flattener.
  • Later today, the US calendar will see Retail Sales, Empire Manufacturing, Import/Export Prices, Capacity Utilisation and Business Inventory data.
  • The swaps curve twist flattened, with rates 1bp higher to 3bps lower.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed little changed across meetings for 2025. A cumulative 88bps of easing is priced by February, with 51bps by year-end.
  • On Monday, the local calendar will see the Performance Services Index, and PPI and Non-Resident Bond Holdings data.
  •  
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NZGBs closed slightly mixed, settling near the middle of today’s range, with benchmark yields fluctuating within +/-1bp. The NZGB 10-year underperformed relative to its $-bloc counterparts, with the NZ–US yield differential widening by 1bp and the NZ–AU differential widening by 5bps. 

  • The local market was likely supported by the news today that NZ’s manufacturing industry contracted for a record 20th consecutive month, reinforcing signs the economy will need further stimulus to get back up to speed.
  • Cash US tsys are flat to 2bps cheaper, with a steepening bias, in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s twist-flattener.
  • Later today, the US calendar will see Retail Sales, Empire Manufacturing, Import/Export Prices, Capacity Utilisation and Business Inventory data.
  • The swaps curve twist flattened, with rates 1bp higher to 3bps lower.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed little changed across meetings for 2025. A cumulative 88bps of easing is priced by February, with 51bps by year-end.
  • On Monday, the local calendar will see the Performance Services Index, and PPI and Non-Resident Bond Holdings data.
  •