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BONDS: NZGBS: Strong Close Driven By Global Bonds

BONDS
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

NZGBs closed firmly, with benchmark yields ending at session lows, down 5-6bps. With no local economic data on the calendar today and 10-year yield differentials against other $-bloc counterparts largely unchanged, the move appears to have been driven by offshore influences rather than domestic factors. 

  • Cash US tsys are ~1bp richer across benchmarks in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest gains. On tap for today in the US: Building Permits, Housing Starts and KC Fed Schmid speaks on the economic outlook.
  • Swap rates closed 5-7bps lower with the 2s10s curve steeper.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed 4-8bps softer for meetings in 2025. A cumulative 92bps of easing is priced by February, with 52bps by year-end.
  • The local calendar is light for the remainder of the week. The next key release will be Q3 Retail Sales ex Inflation next Monday.
  • On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$200mn of the 3.0% Apr-29 bond, NZ$225mn of the 2.0% May-32 bond and NZ$75mn of the 1.75% May-41 bond.
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NZGBs closed firmly, with benchmark yields ending at session lows, down 5-6bps. With no local economic data on the calendar today and 10-year yield differentials against other $-bloc counterparts largely unchanged, the move appears to have been driven by offshore influences rather than domestic factors. 

  • Cash US tsys are ~1bp richer across benchmarks in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest gains. On tap for today in the US: Building Permits, Housing Starts and KC Fed Schmid speaks on the economic outlook.
  • Swap rates closed 5-7bps lower with the 2s10s curve steeper.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed 4-8bps softer for meetings in 2025. A cumulative 92bps of easing is priced by February, with 52bps by year-end.
  • The local calendar is light for the remainder of the week. The next key release will be Q3 Retail Sales ex Inflation next Monday.
  • On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$200mn of the 3.0% Apr-29 bond, NZ$225mn of the 2.0% May-32 bond and NZ$75mn of the 1.75% May-41 bond.