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BONDS: NZGBS: Unchanged With US Out For Thanksgiving Holiday

BONDS
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

In local morning trade, NZGBs are flat to 1bp cheaper, with the US markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. US equity futures drifted higher, with S&P 500 futures up 0.3%.

  • With US markets closed, the main focus was on European bond markets amid a French political crisis as Prime Minister Michel Barnier struggles to secure approval for next year’s budget. The far-right National Rally was hinting at a vote to bring down the government if its budget demands are not met.
  • The gap between French 10-year rates and safer German equivalents widened as much as 4bps to 90bps on Wednesday, the highest since 2012, before falling back to 85bps.
  • The NZ consumer confidence index rose to 99.8 in November from 91.2 in October. “It’s still very tough out there for many, with a much larger proportion of households saying they are financially worse off than a year than are saying they are better off, but the dial is starting to shift”: ANZ
  • Swap rates are unchanged.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed. 42bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 96bps by November 2025.
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In local morning trade, NZGBs are flat to 1bp cheaper, with the US markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. US equity futures drifted higher, with S&P 500 futures up 0.3%.

  • With US markets closed, the main focus was on European bond markets amid a French political crisis as Prime Minister Michel Barnier struggles to secure approval for next year’s budget. The far-right National Rally was hinting at a vote to bring down the government if its budget demands are not met.
  • The gap between French 10-year rates and safer German equivalents widened as much as 4bps to 90bps on Wednesday, the highest since 2012, before falling back to 85bps.
  • The NZ consumer confidence index rose to 99.8 in November from 91.2 in October. “It’s still very tough out there for many, with a much larger proportion of households saying they are financially worse off than a year than are saying they are better off, but the dial is starting to shift”: ANZ
  • Swap rates are unchanged.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed. 42bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 96bps by November 2025.