Bonds Paring Mild Losses

Bonds continue to inch off late overnight lows (133-22), front month Jun'23 futures extending top end of range (134-00) at the moment on exceedingly light volume: USM3 under 7,000. Focus on March employment data release at 0830ET.

• Bloomberg consensus looks for still solid nonfarm payrolls gain of 230k in March, closer to December’s pace with a return of more typical weather.
• Actual expectations might be a little lower now after a recent string of weak data labor indicators..
• An upside surprise would likely need to be followed by US CPI next week to see a material shift higher in the path. Alternatively, a downside miss could see a large dovish reaction considering recent reactions to smaller releases, even with the weaker backdrop already priced.