BoT Debates Monetary Policy, Cabinet Mulls Fiscal Measures

Spot USD/THB started on a slightly firmer footing and it had some catching up to do in early trade, as local financial markets returned after the long weekend. The rate last sits +0.070 at THB31.210.

• Thailand's manufacturing sector has returned into expansion, the latest Markit survey showed. Headline index printed at 50.7 in April, up from March's 48.8 and IHS Markit said that "key indicators for output and new orders signalled renewed growth, driven by the strongest increase in exports for over a year-and-a-half."
• The CPI report for April comes out later today. Annual consumer price inflation is expected to turn positive for the first time since February 2020. The recovery in CPI was delayed by the reduction in electricity & water charges for some users in February/March, but the April reading should be free from the impact of these measures.
• Later in the day, focus turns to the monetary policy decision from the BoT. They are unlikely to touch interest rates, but ma downgrade forecasts in reaction to the third wave of coronavirus. Our full preview can be accessed here.
• The BoT's Business Sentiment Index is due after the MPC announcement, with consumer confidence coming up Thursday. The weekly update on foreign reserves is due Friday.
• With the MPC set to stand pat on rates, focus turns to fiscal measures. The Cabinet may discuss further stimulus during today's weekly meeting chaired by PM Prayuth.
• Thailand has launched mass vaccinations in Bangkok's Klong Toey district and plans to inoculate 60% of residents in two weeks, as people from the area travel to work across the capital region.
• The Bangkok Post cited a K-Research study noting that "liquidity in the domestic banking sector has been declining due to higher deposit withdrawals from business operators attempting to cope with the impact of the prolonged pandemic."
• Bulls look for a rally above Apr 26 high of THB31.493, towards Apr 12 high of THB31.575, following the recent formation of a golden cross. Bears need a dip through Apr 30 low of THB31.138 to confirm the completion of a double top pattern and shift focus to the downside.