BOTM-UJF's Chris Rupkey eyed the US.........>

US VIEW: BOTM-UJF's Chris Rupkey eyed the US economy's "last 3 cycles" using

lowest jobless rate as "measure of the best of best times during the upswing in

economic growth. As the unemployment rate moves lower and lower, the odds seem

to go up that things can only go wrong, with little improvement left to be had."

- He adds "we don't know how low the unemployment rate can go each cycle of

course" but "we are getting closer to the end with the unemployment rate falling

to 4.2% in Sep. 2017."

- He adds the qrtrly avg basis "low in unemployment before the 1990-91 recession

was 5.2%, and the economy was in recession 6 quarters later. In the 2001

recession, unemployment fell to 3.9% for the first time in Q2 2000, and four

quarters later, the economy was in recession. Before the latest 2007-09

recession, unemployment fell as low as 4.5% in Q4 2006, and the economy was in

recession 5 qtrs later."

- He said "without thinking about the "why" of the next recession,

statistically, we are close, with the unemployment rate falling down between the

4.5% and 3.9% low points the last 2 times out. Getting closer. Get ready."